Resumes of Principals
Mr. Paul H. Raab
Mr. Raab's consulting focus is on the regulated public utility industry. His experience includes mathematical and economic analyses and system development and his areas of expertise include regulatory change management, load forecasting, supply-side and demand-side planning, management audits, mergers and acquisitions, costing and rate design, and depreciation and life analysis.
PROFESSIONAL EXPERIENCE
Mr. Raab has directed or has had a key role in numerous engagements in the areas listed above. Representative clients are provided for each of these areas in the subsections below.
Regulatory Change Management
Mr. Raab has recently been assisting both electric and natural gas utilities as they prepare to operate in an environment that is significantly different from the one they operate in today. This work has involved the development of unbundled cost of service studies; the development of strategies that will allow companies to prosper in a restructured industry; retail access program development, implementation, and evaluation; and the development of innovative ratemaking approaches to accompany changes in the regulatory structure. Representative clients for whom he has performed such work include:
Load Forecasting
Mr. Raab has broad experience in the review and development of forecasts of sales forecasts for electric and natural gas utilities. This work has also included the development of elasticity of demand measures that have been used for attrition adjustments and revenue requirement reconciliations. Representative clients for whom he has performed such work include:
Supply Side Planning
Mr. Raab has assisted clients to determine the most appropriate supply-side resources to meet future demands. This assistance has included the determination of optimal sizes and types of capacity to install, determination of production costs including and excluding the resource, and an assessment of system reliability changes as a result of different resource additions. Much of this work for the following clients has been done in conjunction with litigation:
Demand Side Planning
Demand Side Planning involves the forecasting of future demands; the design, development, implementation, and evaluation of demand side management programs; the determination of future supply side costs; and the integration of cost effective demand side management programs into an Integrated Least Cost Resource Plan. Mr. Raab has performed such work for the following clients:
Management Audits
Mr. Raab has been involved in a number of management audits. Consistent with his other experience, the focus of his efforts has been in the areas of load forecasting, demand- and supply-side planning, integrated resource planning, sales and marketing, and rates. Representative commission/utility clients are as follows:
Mergers and Acquisitions
Mr. Raab has been involved in a number of merger and acquisition studies throughout his career. Many of these were conducted as confidential studies and cannot be listed. Those in which his involvement was publicly known are:
Costing and Rate Design Analysis
Mr. Raab has prepared generic rate design studies for the National Governor's Conference, the Electricity Consumer's Resource Council, the Tennessee Valley Industrial Committee, the State Electricity Commission of Western Australia, and the State Electricity Commission of Victoria. These generic studies addressed advantages and disadvantages of alternative costing approaches in the electric utility industry; the strengths and weaknesses of commonly encountered costing methodologies; future tariff policies to promote equity, efficiency, and fairness criteria; and the advisability of changing tariff policies. Mr. Raab has performed specific costing and rate design studies for the following companies:
Depreciation and Life Analysis
Mr. Raab has extensive experience in depreciation and life analysis studies for the electric, gas, rail, and telephone industries and has taught a course on depreciation at George Washington University, Washington, DC. Representative clients in this area include:
TESTIMONY
The following table summarizes Mr. Raab's testimony experience.
In addition, Mr. Raab has presented expert testimony before the Michigan House Economic Development and Energy Committee and the Province of Saskatchewan. He is a member of the Advisory Board of the Expert Evidence Report, published by The Bureau of National Affairs, Inc.
EDUCATION
Mr. Raab holds a B.A. (with high distinction) in Economics from Rutgers University and an M.A. from SUNY at Binghamton with a concentration in Econometrics. While attending Rutgers, he studied as a Henry Rutgers Scholar.
PUBLICATIONS AND PRESENTATIONS
Mr. Raab has published in a number of professional journals and spoken at a number of industry conferences. His publications/ presentations include:
PROFESSIONAL EXPERIENCE
Over the past years, Mr. Arik has worked on numerous engagements involving regulatory change management, load forecasting, supply and demand side planning, management audits, costing and rate design analysis, and mergers and acquisitions. Representative clients are provided for each of these areas in the subsections below.
Regulatory Change Management
Mr. Arik has recently been assisting both electric and natural gas utilities as they prepare to operate in a restructured industry. This work has involved the development of unbundled cost of service studies (i.e. separation of transmission, distribution and energy costs); the development of strategies that will allow companies to prosper in a restructured industry; retail access program development, implementation, and evaluation; and the development of innovative ratemaking approaches to accompany changes in the regulatory structure. Representative clients for whom he has performed such work include:
Load Forecasting
Mr. Arik has prepared load forecasting studies for electric and natural gas utilities, including end-use models. These studies involve Monte Carlo simulations and time-series analysis to model probabilistic distributions of various scenarios. This work has also included the development of elasticity of demand measures that have been used for attrition adjustments and revenue requirement reconciliation. Representative clients for whom he has performed such work include:
Supply Side Planning
Mr. Arik has worked on several supply-side planning projects, involving the evaluation of short-term and long-term gas supply and resource plans using ROGM. These plans have included load forecasting, calculation of avoided costs, strategic resource acquisition, supply related contract evaluation, determination of optimal sizes and types of capacity to install, determination of production costs including and excluding the resource, and an assessment of system reliability changes as a result of different resource additions.
Management Audits
Mr. Arik has been involved in a number of management audits. Consistent with his other experience, the focus of his efforts has been in the areas of load forecasting, demand- and supply-side planning, and integrated resource planning. Demand-side planning involves the forecasting of future demands; the design, development, implementation, and evaluation of demand side management programs; the determination of future supply side costs; and the integration of cost effective demand side management programs into an Integrated Least Cost Resource Plan. Representative commission/utility clients are as follows:
Mergers and Acquisitions
Mr. Arik has been involved in a number of merger and acquisition studies throughout his career. Many of these were conducted as confidential studies and cannot be listed. Those in which his involvement was publicly known are:
Costing and Rate Design Analysis
Mr. Arik has used ROGM to conduct marginal cost, cost of service, gas supply and resource planning studies for utility clients. Various studies have been used for filings with public service commissions and for integrated resource planning. Mr. Arik has performed specific costing and rate design studies for the following companies:
EDUCATION
After graduating from Galatasaray Lycee in Istanbul, Turkey, Mr. Yavuz Arik earned a B.S. degree in Industrial Engineering from Bogazici University in Istanbul, Turkey and an M.A. in Economics from Georgetown University. Mr. Arik speaks Turkish, English and French fluently.
Mr. Paul H. Raab
Mr. Raab's consulting focus is on the regulated public utility industry. His experience includes mathematical and economic analyses and system development and his areas of expertise include regulatory change management, load forecasting, supply-side and demand-side planning, management audits, mergers and acquisitions, costing and rate design, and depreciation and life analysis.
PROFESSIONAL EXPERIENCE
Mr. Raab has directed or has had a key role in numerous engagements in the areas listed above. Representative clients are provided for each of these areas in the subsections below.
Regulatory Change Management
Mr. Raab has recently been assisting both electric and natural gas utilities as they prepare to operate in an environment that is significantly different from the one they operate in today. This work has involved the development of unbundled cost of service studies; the development of strategies that will allow companies to prosper in a restructured industry; retail access program development, implementation, and evaluation; and the development of innovative ratemaking approaches to accompany changes in the regulatory structure. Representative clients for whom he has performed such work include:
- Kansas Corporation Commission
- Atmos Energy Corporation
- Electric Cooperatives' Association
- Central Louisiana Electric Company
- Washington Gas
- Western Resources
- Kansas Gas Service
- Mid Continent Market Center
Load Forecasting
Mr. Raab has broad experience in the review and development of forecasts of sales forecasts for electric and natural gas utilities. This work has also included the development of elasticity of demand measures that have been used for attrition adjustments and revenue requirement reconciliations. Representative clients for whom he has performed such work include:
- Washington Gas Energy Services
- Central Louisiana Electric Company
- Washington Gas
- Saskatchewan Public Utilities Review Commission
- Union Gas Limited
- Nova Scotia Power Corporation
- Cajun Electric Power Cooperative
- Cincinnati Gas & Electric
- Commonwealth Edison Company
- Cleveland Electric Illuminating
- Public Service of Indiana
- Atlantic City Electric Company
- Detroit Edison Company
- Sierra Pacific Power
- Connecticut Natural Gas Corporation
- Appalachian Power Company
- Missouri Public Service Company
- Empire District Electric Company
- Public Service Company of Oklahoma
- Wisconsin Electric Power Company
- Northern States Power Company
- Iowa State Commerce Commission
- Missouri Public Service Commission
Supply Side Planning
Mr. Raab has assisted clients to determine the most appropriate supply-side resources to meet future demands. This assistance has included the determination of optimal sizes and types of capacity to install, determination of production costs including and excluding the resource, and an assessment of system reliability changes as a result of different resource additions. Much of this work for the following clients has been done in conjunction with litigation:
- Washington Gas
- Soyland Electric Cooperative
- Houston Lighting and Power
- City of Farmington, New Mexico
- Big Rivers Electric Cooperative
- City of Redding, California
- Brown & Root
- Kentucky Joint Committee on Electric Power Planning Coordination
- Sierra Pacific Power
Demand Side Planning
Demand Side Planning involves the forecasting of future demands; the design, development, implementation, and evaluation of demand side management programs; the determination of future supply side costs; and the integration of cost effective demand side management programs into an Integrated Least Cost Resource Plan. Mr. Raab has performed such work for the following clients:
- Washington Gas Light Company
- Piedmont Natural Gas Company
- Chesapeake Utilities
- Pennsylvania & Southern Gas
- Montana-Dakota Utilities
Management Audits
Mr. Raab has been involved in a number of management audits. Consistent with his other experience, the focus of his efforts has been in the areas of load forecasting, demand- and supply-side planning, integrated resource planning, sales and marketing, and rates. Representative commission/utility clients are as follows:
- Public Utilities Commission of Ohio/East Ohio Gas
- Kentucky Public Service Commission/Louisville Gas & Electric
- New Hampshire Public Service Commission/Public Service Company of New Hampshire
- New Mexico Public Service Commission/Public Service of New Mexico
- New York Public Service Commission/New York State Electric & Gas
- Missouri Public Service Commission/Laclede Gas Company
- New Jersey Board of Public Utilities/Jersey Central Power & Light
- New Jersey Board of Public Utilities/New Jersey Natural Gas
- Pennsylvania Public Utilities Commission/ Pennsylvania Power & Light
- California Public Utilities Commission/San Diego Gas & Electric Company
Mergers and Acquisitions
Mr. Raab has been involved in a number of merger and acquisition studies throughout his career. Many of these were conducted as confidential studies and cannot be listed. Those in which his involvement was publicly known are:
- ONEOK, Inc./Southwest Gas Corporation
- Western Resources
- Constellation
Costing and Rate Design Analysis
Mr. Raab has prepared generic rate design studies for the National Governor's Conference, the Electricity Consumer's Resource Council, the Tennessee Valley Industrial Committee, the State Electricity Commission of Western Australia, and the State Electricity Commission of Victoria. These generic studies addressed advantages and disadvantages of alternative costing approaches in the electric utility industry; the strengths and weaknesses of commonly encountered costing methodologies; future tariff policies to promote equity, efficiency, and fairness criteria; and the advisability of changing tariff policies. Mr. Raab has performed specific costing and rate design studies for the following companies:
- Laclede Gas
- Aquila
- Western Resources
- Kansas Gas Service Company
- Central Louisiana Electric Company
- Washington Gas Light Company
- Piedmont Natural Gas Company
- Chesapeake Utilities
- Pennsylvania & Southern Gas
- KPL Gas Service Company
- Allegheny Power Systems
- Northern States Power
- Interstate Power Company
- Iowa Illinois Gas & Electric Company
- Arkansas Power and Light
- Iowa Power & Light
- Iowa Public Service Company
- Southern California Edison
- Pacific Gas & Electric
- New York State Electric & Gas
- Middle South Utilities
- Missouri Public Service Company
- Empire District Electric Company
- Sierra Pacific Power
- Commonwealth Edison Company
- South Carolina Electric & Gas
- State Electricity Commission of Western Australia
- State Electricity Commission of Victoria, Australia
- Public Service Company of New Mexico
- Tennessee Valley Authority
Depreciation and Life Analysis
Mr. Raab has extensive experience in depreciation and life analysis studies for the electric, gas, rail, and telephone industries and has taught a course on depreciation at George Washington University, Washington, DC. Representative clients in this area include:
- Champaign Telephone Company
- Plains Generation & Transmission Cooperative
- CSX Corporation (Includes work for Seaboard Coast Line, Louisville & Nashville, Baltimore & Ohio, Chesapeake & Ohio, and Western Maryland Railroads)
- Lea County Electric Cooperative, Inc.
- North Carolina Electric Membership Cooperative
- Alberta Gas Trunk Lines (NOVA)
- Federal Communications Commission
TESTIMONY
The following table summarizes Mr. Raab's testimony experience.
Jurisdiction |
Docket Number |
Subject |
| District of Columbia | 834 |
Demand Side Planning Costing/Rate Design Costing/Rate Design Demand Side Planning Rate Design Rate Design Costing/Rate Design |
| Indiana | 36818 | Capacity Planning |
| Kansas | 174,155-U 176,716-U 98-KGSG-822-TAR 99-KGSG-705-GIG 01-KGSG-229-TAR 02-WSRE-301-RTS |
Retail Competition Costing/Rate Design Restructuring/Rate Design Restructuring Rate Design Cost of Service |
| Kentucky | 9613 97-083 |
Capacity Planning Management Audit |
| Louisiana | U-21453 | Restructuring/Market Structure/Market Power |
| Maryland | 8251 8259 8315 8720 8791 8920 |
Costing/Rate Design Demand Side Planning Costing/Rate Design Demand Side Planning Costing/Rate Design Costing/Rate Design |
| Michigan | U-6949 | Load Forecasting |
| Missouri | GR-2002-356 | Rate Design |
| Nevada | 81-660 | Load Forecasting |
| New Jersey | OAL# PUC 1876 82 BPU# 822 0116 |
Load Forecasting |
| New Mexico | 2087 | Capacity Planning |
| New York | 27546 | Costing/Rate Design |
| Ohio | 81-1378-EL-AIR | Load Forecasting |
| Oklahoma | 27068 | Capacity Planning |
| Tennessee | PURPA Hearings | Costing/Rate Design |
| US Tax Court | 4870 4875 |
Life Analysis Life Analysis |
| Virginia | PUE900013 PUE920041 PUE940030 PUE940031 PUE950131 PUE-2002-00 |
Demand Side Planning Costing/Rate Design Costing/Rate Design Costing/Rate Design Capacity Planning Costing/Rate Design |
| West Virginia | 79-140-E-42T 90-046-E-PC |
Capacity Planning Demand Side Planning |
| Wisconsin | 05-EP-2 | Capacity Planning |
In addition, Mr. Raab has presented expert testimony before the Michigan House Economic Development and Energy Committee and the Province of Saskatchewan. He is a member of the Advisory Board of the Expert Evidence Report, published by The Bureau of National Affairs, Inc.
EDUCATION
Mr. Raab holds a B.A. (with high distinction) in Economics from Rutgers University and an M.A. from SUNY at Binghamton with a concentration in Econometrics. While attending Rutgers, he studied as a Henry Rutgers Scholar.
PUBLICATIONS AND PRESENTATIONS
Mr. Raab has published in a number of professional journals and spoken at a number of industry conferences. His publications/ presentations include:
- "Factors Influencing Cooperative Power Supply," National Rural Utilities Cooperative Finance Corporation Independent Borrower's Conference, Boston, MA, July 3, 1997.
- "Current Status of LDC Unbundling," American Gas Association Unbundling Conference: Regulatory and Competitive Issues, Arlington, VA, June 19, 1997.
- "Balancing, Capacity Assignment, and Stranded Costs," American Gas Association Rate and Strategic Planning Committee Spring Meeting, Phoenix, AZ, March 26, 1997.
- "Gas Industry Restructuring and Changes: The Relationship of Economics and Marketing" (with Jed Smith), National Association of Business Economists, 38th Annual Meeting, Boston, MA September 10, 1996.
- "Improving Corporate Performance By Better Forecasting," 1996 Peak Day Demand and Supply Planning Seminar, San Francisco, CA, April 11, 1996.
- "Natural Gas Price Elasticity Estimation," AGA Forecasting Review, Vol. 6, No. 1, November, 1995.
- "Assessing Price Competitiveness," Competitive Analysis & Benchmarking for Power Companies, Washington, DC, November 13, 1995.
- "Avoided Cost Concepts and Management Considerations," Workshop on Avoided Costs in a Post 636 Gas Industry: Is It Time to Unbundle Avoided Cost? Sponsored by the Gas Research Institute and Wisconsin Center for Demand-Side Research, Milwaukee, WI, June 29, 1994.
- "Estimating Implied Long- and Short-Run Price Elasticities of Natural Gas Consumption," Atlantic Economic Conference, Philadelphia, PA, October 10, 1993.
- "Program Evaluation and Marginal Cost," The Natural Gas Least Cost Planning Conference, Washington, DC, April 7, 1992.
- "The New Environmentalism & Least Cost Planning," Institute for Environmental Negotiation, University of Virginia, May 15, 1991.
- "Development of Conditional Demand Estimates of Gas Appliances," AGA Forecasting Review, Vol. 1, No. 1, October, 1988.
- "The Feasibility Study: Forecasting and Sensitivities," Municipal Wastewater Treatment Facilities, The Energy Bureau, Inc., November 18, 1985.
- "The Development of a Gas Sales End Use Forecasting Model," Third International Forecasting Symposium, The International Institute of Forecasting, July 1984.
- "New Forecasting Guidelines for REC's A Seminar," (Chairman), Kansas City, Missouri, June 1984.
- "A Method and Application of Estimating Long Run Marginal Cost for an Electric Utility," Advances in Microeconomics, Volume II, 1983.
- "Forecasting Under Public Scrutiny," Forecasting Energy and Demand Requirements, University of Wisconsin Extension, October 25, 1982.
- "Forecasting Public Utilities," The Journal of Business Forecasting, Vol. 1, No. 4, Summer, 1982.
- "Are Utilities Underforecasting," Electric Ratemaking, Vol. 1. No. 1, February, 1982.
- "A Polynominal Spline Function Technique for Defining and Forecasting Electric Utility Load Duration Curves," First International Forecasting Symposium, Montreal, Canada, May, 1981.
- "Time of Use Rates and Marginal Costs," ELCON Legal Seminar, March 20, l980.
- "The Ernst & Whinney Forecasting Model," Forecasting Energy & Demand Requirements, University of Wisconsin Extension, October 8, l979.
- "Marginal Cost in Electric Utilities A Multi Technology Multi Period Analysis" (with Frederick McCoy), ORSA/Tims Joint National Meeting, Los Angeles, California, November 13 15, 1978.
Mr. Yavuz Arik
Mr. Arik's consulting focus is on the regulated public utility industry and their information systems needs. He has over ten years of consulting experience in quantitative planning and modeling and information system design. His experience includes mathematical modeling, optimization, economic and econometric analyses and information systems development and his areas of expertise include regulatory change management, load forecasting, supply-side and demand-side planning, management audits, mergers and acquisitions, and costing and rate design.
Mr. Arik has developed the Resource Optimizing Gas Model (ROGM), a comprehensive gas optimization model to provide in-depth analysis for integrated least cost planning, demand-side management program evaluation, rate cases, marginal cost analysis, strategic resource planning, cost-of-service studies and unbundling studies. Clients are currently using ROGM over the Internet. Some of the studies based on this model have been filed with public service commissions. This model is used to analyze tradeoffs between reserve requirements, cost of gas supply, and resource acquisition and utilization for gas distribution companies by formulating the optimal usage mix of available resources.
Mr. Arik has also lead the development of the following information system models for various clients:
- Forecasting model for gas and electric utilities and third party marketers: The system uses load research data for customer groups along with weather data and monthly historical demand data to develop Monte Carlo simulations of system demand and demand variability by weather and other factors. This model can be used in tandem with ROGM to develop short-term and long-term supply planning and portfolio analysis. When used in tandem with a risk analysis model, the model can evaluate financial risk probabilities and total risk exposure.
- Line extension evaluation: Utilities often consider extending their service to new development areas, and the economic evaluation of such extensions can be performed using this model.
- Tariff document management: Regulated utilities must prepare their tariffs and submit these documents for approval within the company and subsequently with their public service commission. This system provides a uniform document editing and review system to ensure ease of review and uniformity of submitted tariffs.
- Case management: This system allows its users to manage all information exchanged with a public service commission. This model is especially valuable to utilities to 1) keep a consistent archive of information related to cases, 2) to allow easy retrieval of information relevant to a particular topic to ensure consistency of responses provided, and 3) to manage responses to the public service commission within the company by routing, enforcing proper legal and management review and ensure accuracy in timely responses and content provided.
PROFESSIONAL EXPERIENCE
Over the past years, Mr. Arik has worked on numerous engagements involving regulatory change management, load forecasting, supply and demand side planning, management audits, costing and rate design analysis, and mergers and acquisitions. Representative clients are provided for each of these areas in the subsections below.
Regulatory Change Management
Mr. Arik has recently been assisting both electric and natural gas utilities as they prepare to operate in a restructured industry. This work has involved the development of unbundled cost of service studies (i.e. separation of transmission, distribution and energy costs); the development of strategies that will allow companies to prosper in a restructured industry; retail access program development, implementation, and evaluation; and the development of innovative ratemaking approaches to accompany changes in the regulatory structure. Representative clients for whom he has performed such work include:
- BOTAS
- Kansas Corporation Commission
- Electric Cooperatives' Association
- Central Louisiana Electric Company
- Washington Gas
- Kansas Gas Service
Load Forecasting
Mr. Arik has prepared load forecasting studies for electric and natural gas utilities, including end-use models. These studies involve Monte Carlo simulations and time-series analysis to model probabilistic distributions of various scenarios. This work has also included the development of elasticity of demand measures that have been used for attrition adjustments and revenue requirement reconciliation. Representative clients for whom he has performed such work include:
- Washington Gas Energy Services
- Central Louisiana Electric Company
- Kansas Gas Service
- Washington Gas
Supply Side Planning
Mr. Arik has worked on several supply-side planning projects, involving the evaluation of short-term and long-term gas supply and resource plans using ROGM. These plans have included load forecasting, calculation of avoided costs, strategic resource acquisition, supply related contract evaluation, determination of optimal sizes and types of capacity to install, determination of production costs including and excluding the resource, and an assessment of system reliability changes as a result of different resource additions.
Management Audits
Mr. Arik has been involved in a number of management audits. Consistent with his other experience, the focus of his efforts has been in the areas of load forecasting, demand- and supply-side planning, and integrated resource planning. Demand-side planning involves the forecasting of future demands; the design, development, implementation, and evaluation of demand side management programs; the determination of future supply side costs; and the integration of cost effective demand side management programs into an Integrated Least Cost Resource Plan. Representative commission/utility clients are as follows:
- Kentucky Public Service Commission/Louisville Gas & Electric
- Kentucky Public Service Commission/Columbia Gas of Kentucky-NiSource
- Kentucky Public Service Commission/Delta Natural Gas Company
- Kentucky Public Service Commission/ULHP-Cinergy
- Kentucky Public Service Commission/Western Kentucky Gas-Atmos
- Public Utilities Commission of Ohio/Vectren Energy Delivery of Ohio
Mergers and Acquisitions
Mr. Arik has been involved in a number of merger and acquisition studies throughout his career. Many of these were conducted as confidential studies and cannot be listed. Those in which his involvement was publicly known are:
- ONEOK, Inc./Southwest Gas Corporation
- Western Resources
Costing and Rate Design Analysis
Mr. Arik has used ROGM to conduct marginal cost, cost of service, gas supply and resource planning studies for utility clients. Various studies have been used for filings with public service commissions and for integrated resource planning. Mr. Arik has performed specific costing and rate design studies for the following companies:
- Western Resources
- Kansas Gas Service Company
- Central Louisiana Electric Company
- Washington Gas Light Company
EDUCATION
After graduating from Galatasaray Lycee in Istanbul, Turkey, Mr. Yavuz Arik earned a B.S. degree in Industrial Engineering from Bogazici University in Istanbul, Turkey and an M.A. in Economics from Georgetown University. Mr. Arik speaks Turkish, English and French fluently.
